Trends in Genetics
OpinionOn the allelic spectrum of human disease
Section snippets
A simple model
We outline a simple model for making predictions about disease allele diversity.
A tale of two loci
Consider two hypothetical monogenic disorders with the same underlying mutation rate, but different overall frequency of disease alleles in the population: a rare disease with f0 = 0.001 and a common disease with a much larger f0 = 0.2. As noted above, the frequency of the disease class, f0, is determined by the balance between mutation and selection. In our example, the mutation rates will be assumed to be equal at μ = 3.2 × 10−6 per generation. Hence, the frequency difference must reflect
Implications for disease mapping
The success of an association study to identify a disease-susceptibility locus depends on the detection of an increased frequency of specific disease alleles in affected individuals. This requires that the locus have a relatively simple allelic spectrum: that is, a few predominant alleles. The analysis above shows that these conditions should hold – and thus association studies should be feasible – for loci at which the total frequency f of disease alleles is above some threshold.
The threshold
Two caveats
Our simple model predicts that for disease loci with large f0 and typical values of μ, modern allelic spectra should be simple because of a slow decay of the ancestral disease class. We now introduce two caveats due to oversimplifications of the model. The first is a mechanism that could yield a more diverse spectrum than expected. The second is an additional mechanism by which a simpler spectrum could arise.
Real diseases
How well do these insights explain the data for various monogenic disorders?
Discussion
The simple theory above aims to predict the allelic spectrum in the human population for a class of selectively equivalent alleles at a single locus, as a function of the overall frequency f0 of the class 14, 15, 28. At equilibrium, the allelic variation should be almost independent of f0. However, the human population is far from equilibrium, as it has been growing dramatically during the past 100 000 years. The consequences of this growth, in terms of genetic diversity, will require millions
Acknowledgements
We thank Haninah Levine for assistance with computer simulations, and Edward Byrne and Kirk Lohmueller for help in researching Table 1. We thank David Altshuler, Michele Cargill, David Goldstein and Joel Hirschhorn for comments and discussions.
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