Predictive performance of several cut-off values for predicted probability of progressive disease
| Cut-off values | Observed number of patients* | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25 | 49 | 84 | 36 | 43 | 80 |
| 0.32 | 84 | 69 | 60 | 49 | 76 |
| 0.45 | 125 | 46 | 84 | 46 | 73 |
| 0.50 | 138 | 35 | 90 | 67 | 70 |
| 0.60 | 150 | 27 | 96 | 81 | 69 |
| 0.75 | 162 | 13 | 99 | 89 | 66 |
*Below cut-off value. For example, 138 of our patients had a probability of progressive disease below 0.5. Using this cut-off value, 67% of the patients are correctly classified as getting progressive disease, while 70% are correctly classified as not at risk for progressive disease.
No, number; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.