Subgroup analyses of patients with complete clinical examination and imaging data: association between baseline characteristics and progression to fulfilment of 2010 ACR/EULAR RA criteria and the requirement for methotrexate over 12 months (n=41). Values are median (IQR) or n (%) unless otherwise stated
| Progression to RA | Ever required methotrexate | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes n=9 | No n=32 | HR (95 % CI) | p Value | Yes n=18 | No n=23 | HR (95 % CI) | p Value | |
| Age, mean (SD) | 48 (15) | 44 (15) | 1.01 (0.97 to 1.06) | 0.5 | 46 (14) | 43 (16) | 1.01 (0.98 to 1.04) | 0.7 |
| Female | 7 (78%) | 20 (63%) | 1.67 (0.35 to 8.04) | 0.5 | 12 (67%) | 15 (65%) | 0.82 (0.31 to 2.18) | 0.7 |
| Symptom duration, months | 12 (5-29) | 9 (4-18) | 1.00 (0.98 to 1.03) | 0.8 | 15 (5-26) | 6 (3-14) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.03) | 0.04 |
| ACPA positive | 0 | 3 (9%) | NA | NA | 1 (6%) | 2 (9%) | 0.72 (0.10 to 5.41) | 0.7 |
| Early Morning Stiffness ≥60 min | 5 (56%) | 14 (44%) | 1.53 (0.41 to 5.69) | 0.5 | 7 (39%) | 12 (52%) | 0.75 (0.29 to 1.95) | 0.6 |
| RAI | 6 (3-8) | 3 (2-6) | 1.33 (0.99 to 1.79) | 0.06 | 4 (3-6) | 3 (1-6) | 1.06 (0.88 to 1.28) | 0.5 |
| SJC44 | 4 (1-6) | 2 (1-4) | 1.12 (0.87 to 1.45) | 0.4 | 3 (1-4) | 2 (1-5) | 0.98 (0.80 to 1.18) | 0.8 |
| CRP, mg/L | 0 (0-10) | 6 (0-22) | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.03) | 0.07 | 9 (0-28) | 6 (0-17) | 1.01 (0.99 to 1.02) | 0.4 |
| Patient VASDA, mm | 59 (33-75)a | 45 (23-64)b | 1.03 (0.99 to 1.06) | 0.1 | 64 (38-74)c | 30 (17-60)d | 1.03 (1.01 to 1.06) | 0.02 |
| DAS-CRP | 2.8 (2.1-3.1)a | 2.2 (1.9-2.6)b | 3.15 (0.81 to 12.2) | 0.1 | 2.2 (2.0-2.6)c | 2.1 (1.5-2.7)d | 1.75 (0.77 to 3.98) | 0.2 |
| HAQ | 0.9 (0.1–1.3) | 0.3 (0.1-0.8)e | 3.73 (1.40 to 9.94) | 0.009 | 0.5 (0.1-0.9)c | 0.3 (0.1-0.8)c | 1.04 (0.43 to 2.55) | 0.9 |
| Total GS score (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP | 16 (12-19) | 8 (4-12) | 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20) 1.11 (1.03 to 1.20) 1.10 (1.01 to 1.19) | 0.008 0.008 0.03 | 12 (9-18) | 7 (2-12) | 1.09 (1.02 to 1.15) 1.09 (1.02 to 1.15) 1.09 (1.03 to 1.17) | 0.01 0.01 0.02 |
| Number of joints with significant GS synovitis: -Any joint ≥ grade 2 (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP -MTPs= grade 3, other joints ≥ grade 2 (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP | 5 (4–8) 2 (1–3) | 1 (0–3) 0 (0–1) | 1.25 (1.07 to 1.45) 1.25 (1.07 to 1.45) 1.21 (1.03 to 1.43) 1.43 (1.10 to 1.87) 1.44 (1.09 to 1.91) 1.43 (1.05 to 1.95) | 0.004 0.004 0.02 0.008 0.01 0.02 | 3 (1–6) 1 (0–3) | 1 (0–3) 0 (0–2) | 1.16 (1.02 to 1.32) 1.16 (1.02 to 1.32) 1.18 (1.01 to 1.38) 1.24 (0.99 to 1.54) 1.24 (0.99 to 1.53) 1.26 (0.96 to 1.94) | 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.06 0.09 |
| Total PD score (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP | 0 (0-1) | 1 (0-2) | 1.07 (0.70 to 1.63) 1.06 (0.69 to 1.63) 1.05 (0.71 to 1.56) | 0.8 0.8 0.8 | 0 (0-2) | 1 (0-2) | 1.00 (0.76 to 1.31) 1.00 (0.76 to 1.32) 0.96 (0.71 to 1.28) | 1.0 1.0 0.8 |
| Number of joints with significant PD synovitis: -Any joint ≥ grade 1 (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP -Wrists and MTP1 ≥ grade 2, other joints ≥ grade 1 (unadjusted) Adjusted for SJC44 Adjusted for DAS-CRP | 0 (0–1) 0 (0–0) | 1 (0–1) 0 (0–1) | 0.94 (0.43 to 2.05) 0.91 (0.41 to 2.02) 0.97 (0.46 to 2.02) 1.12 (0.54 to 2.34) 1.15 (0.55 to 2.41) 1.11 (0.55 to 2.25) | 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 | 0 (0–1) 0 (0–1) | 1 (0–1) 0 (0–1) | 0.85 (0.50 to 1.47) 0.85 (0.50 to 1.47) 0.85 (0.50 to 1.47) 1.13 (0.71 to 1.81) 1.13 (0.71 to 1.81) 1.13 (0.71 to 1.81) | 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 |
| Fulfilment of 2010 ACR/EULAR RA criteria with joint involvement determined by US: -GS≥ grade 2 and/or PD≥ grade 1 -GS≥ grade 2 (3 at MTPs) and/or PD≥ grade 1 (2 at wrists) | 3 (33%) 2 (22%) | 1 (3%) 0 |
8.73 (1.99 to 38.3) 16.3 (2.67 to 99.1) |
0.004 0.002 |
3 (17%) 2 (11%) |
0 0 |
1.98 (0.57 to 6.86) 2.42 (0.56 to 10.6) |
0.3 0.2 |
| Radiographic erosion in the hands/feet | 2 (22%) | 1 (3%) | 25.3 (2.30 to 279) | 0.008 | 3 (17%) | 0 | 3.23 (0.93 to 11.2) | 0.07 |
Missing data in a1, b7, c3, d5 and e6 cases.
ACPA, anti-cyclic citrullinated protein antibody; ACR, American College of Rheumatology; CRP, C reactive protein; DAS-CRP: disease activity score; EULAR, European League Against Rheumatism; GS, grey scale; HAQ, Health Assessment Questionnaire; MTP, metatarsophalangeal; NA, not performed; assumptions for testing not met; PD, power Doppler activity; RA, rheumatoid arthritis; RAI, Ritchie articular index; SJC44, swollen joint count of 44 joints; US, ultrasound; VASDA, visual analogue scale disease activity assessment.