RA cohort I: DAS28, 2006–2011, no smoking data | Number of patients (%) | Mean predicted 10 year risk (%) | Observed 10-year risk (%) | Difference observed – Predicted risk | |
Predicted 10-year risk <5% | 7986 | (38.4) | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
Predicted 10-year risk 5.0%–<7.5% | 2838 | (13.6) | 6.2 | 10.4 | 4.2 |
Predicted 10-year risk 7.5%–<10% | 2269 | (10.9) | 8.6 | 12.8 | 4.2 |
Predicted 10-year risk ≥10.0% | 7729 | (37.1) | 20.1 | 28.9 | 8.7 |
RA cohort I: CDAI, 2006–2011, no smoking data | Number of patients (%) | Mean predicted 10-year risk (%) | Observed 10-year risk (%) | Difference observed – Predicted risk | |
Predicted 10-year risk <5% | 801 | (38.4) | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
Predicted 10-year risk 5.0%–<7.5% | 2847 | (13.7) | 6.2 | 10.7 | 4.5 |
Predicted 10-year risk 7.5%–<10% | 2321 | (11.1) | 8.6 | 12.9 | 4.3 |
Predicted 10-year risk ≥10.0% | 7644 | (36.7) | 20.0 | 29.1 | 9.1 |
RA cohort II: subset of RA cohort I with smoking data | Number of patients (%) | Mean predicted 10 year risk (%) | Observed 10 year risk (%) | Difference observed – Predicted risk | |
Predicted 10-year risk <5% | 884 | (47.9) | 2.5 | 2.3 | −0.2 |
Predicted 10-year risk 5.0%–<7.5% | 282 | (15.3) | 6.2 | 5.7 | −0.5 |
Predicted 10 year risk 7.5%–<10% | 43 | (2.3) | 8.6 | 13.4 | 4.8 |
Predicted 10-year risk ≥10.0% | 638 | (34.5) | 18.3 | 18.3 | 0 |
RA cohort III: contemporary cohort with smoking data | Number of patients (%) | Mean predicted 10-year risk (%) | Observed 10-year risk (%) | Difference observed – Predicted risk | |
Predicted 10-year risk <5% | 4879 | (31.3) | 2.7 | 1.8 | −0.9 |
Predicted 10-year risk 5.0%–<7.5% | 1713 | (10.1) | 6.2 | 4.6 | −1.6 |
Predicted 10-year risk 7.5%–<10% | 1600 | (10.3) | 8.6 | 10.1 | 1.5 |
Predicted 10-year risk ≥10.0% | 7383 | (47.4) | 22.5 | 18.7 | −3.8 |
CDAI, clinical disease activity index; DAS28, disease activity score 28-joint count; RA, rheumatoid arthritis.