Variable | Bivariate HR (95% CI) | P value | Multivariate HR (95% CI) | P value |
Age* | 1.12 (1.09 to 1.14) | <0.001 | 1.08 (1.06 to 1.11) | <0.001 |
Sex (male) | 0.30 (0.17 to 0.53) | <0.001 | ||
Clinical evolution | ||||
Tophi only or mono | 1 | |||
Oligo | 0.98 (0.43 to 2.27) | 0.968 | ||
Polyarticular | 2.43 (0.10 to 5.37) | 0.028 | ||
Disease duration* | 0.99 (0.96 to 1.02) | 0.527 | ||
Number of flares in the previous year | 1.03 (1.00 to 1.06) | 0.080 | ||
sUA (baseline)* | 1.39 (1.24 to 1.57) | <0.001 | 1.22 (1.08 to 1.38) | 0.001 |
Tophi | 2.83 (1.82 to 4.40) | <0.001 | 1.65 (1.02 to 2.66) | 0.040 |
Radiological assessment | ||||
Normal | 1 | |||
Joint damage | 2.97 (1.32 to 6.69) | 0.009 | ||
Comorbidity and risk factors | ||||
BMI | 1.01 (0.95 to 1.07) | 0.727 | ||
Creatinine (baseline)* | 1.21 (1.07 to 1.38) | 0.003 | ||
Ethanol consumption | 0.35 (0.19 to 0.65) | 0.001 | ||
Hypertension | 5.83 (3.27 to 10.40) | <0.001 | ||
Diabetes mellitus | 3.90 (2.52 to 6.04) | <0.001 | 1.69 (1.05 to 2.72) | 0.029 |
Hyperlipidaemia | 0.58 (0.37 to 0.92) | 0.022 | 0.58 (0.35 to 0.95) | 0.032 |
Previous CV event | 10.14 (6.02 to 17.05) | <0.001 | 3.82 (2.08 to 6.99) | <0.001 |
Diuretic treatment | 7.05 (4.40 to 11.32) | <0.001 | ||
Kaiser strata | ||||
Without risk factors | 1 | |||
1–2 chronic diseases | 1.45 (0.13 to 16.00) | 0.761 | ||
3–4 chronic diseases | 3.55 (0.41 to 30.37) | 0.248 | ||
≥5 chronic diseases | 9.19 (1.13 to 74.83) | 0.038 | ||
Follow-up and treatment | ||||
Prophylaxis | ||||
None | 1 | |||
Anakinra | 0.64 (0.06 to 7.14) | 0.720 | ||
Colchicine | 1.05 (0.24 to 4.54) | 0.952 | ||
Prednisone | 1.73 (0.16 to 19.11) | 0.654 | ||
Cochicine | ||||
No | 1 | |||
Yes | 1.40 (0.81 to 2.44) | 0.230 | ||
First-line treatment | ||||
Without treatment | 1 | |||
Allopurinol | 0.40 (0.17 to 0.97) | 0.043 | ||
Benzbromarone | 0.49 (0.19 to 1.26) | 0.140 | ||
Febuxostat | 0.81 (0.28 to 2.34) | 0.694 | ||
Urate-lowering drugs | 1.00 (0.64 to 1.54) | 0.992 | ||
sUA levels achieved | ||||
Yes | 1 | 1 | ||
No | 3.27 (2.00 to 5.34) | <0.001 | 2.05 (1.21 to 3.45) | 0.007 |
Cohort entry (year period) | ||||
1991–2000 | 1 | 1 | ||
2001–2010 | 1.57 (0.90 to 2.74) | 0.111 | 0.80 (0.44 to 1.48) | 0.486 |
2011–2017 | 2.10 (1.09 to 4.03) | 0.026 | 0.73 (0.36 to 1.50) | 0.398 |
No stratified analysis was performed because the Kaiser strata did not modify the risk associated with sUA.
*Per unit (year, mg/dL).
BMI, body mass index; CV, cardiovascular; sUA, serum uric acid.