Table 4

Αrea under the curve (AUC) model for each biomarker measured at baseline on prediction of ‘Inactive disease’ and ‘remission off medication’ according to Wallace definition,25 26 number of active joints and JADAS71≤135 at 18-year follow-up

Baseline predictor candidates	Active disease versus inactive disease* (n=81/112)		Non-achievement of remission versus remission off medication* (n=117/76)		Active joints at 18-year FU versus no active joints (n=46/153)		JADAS71>1 versus JADAS71≤1 at 18-year FU (n=109/75)
	Missing=43		Missing=43		Missing=37		Missing=52
	AUC	P value	AUC	P value	AUC	P value	AUC	P value
IL-1β	0.60 (0.52–0.68)	0.020*	0.603 (0.52–0.68)	0.016*	0.63 (0.53–0.72)	0.011*	0.66 (0.58–0.74)	<0.001***
IL-4	0.55 (0.47–0.63)	0.245	0.532 (0.45–0.62)	0.455	0.53 (0.43–0.62)	0.572	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.031*
IL-6	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.011*	0.572 (0.49–0.66)	0.093	0.59 (0.50–0.68)	0.044*	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.009**
IL-10	0.54 (0.46–0.63)	0.326	0.563 (0.48–0.65)	0.143	0.53 (0.43–0.62)	0.582	0.55 (0.47–0.64)	0.243
IL-12p70	0.63 (0.55–0.71)	0.003**	0.588 (0.51–0.67)	0.038*	0.62 (0.53–0.71)	0.009**	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.033*
IL-13	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.010*	0.593 (0.51–0.67)	0.029*	0.66 (0.57–0.75)	<0.001***	0.68 (0.60–0.76)	<0.001***
IL-17	0.55 (0.46–0.63)	0.280	0.550 (0.46–0.64)	0.244	0.57 (0.48–0.66)	0.134	0.62 (0.53–0.70)	0.006**
IL-18	0.54 (0.46–0.62)	0.333	0.542 (0.46–0.63)	0.321	0.54 (45–0.64)	0.394	0.56 (0.48–0.65)	0.150
TNFα	0.56 (0.48–0.64)	0.147	0.571 (0.49–0.66)	0.096	0.54 (0.45–0.63)	0.400	0.60 (0.51–0.68)	0.023*
MMP-3	0.64 (0.56–0.72)	<0.001**	0.599 (0.51–0.68)	0.020*	0.66 (0.58–0.75)	<0.001***	0.64 (0.55–0.72)	0.001**
CCL-2	0.52 (0.44–0.60)	0.615	0.548 (0.46–0.63)	0.265	0.45 (0.36–0.54)	0.287	0.51 (0.43–0.60)	0.758
sCD25	0.51 (0.42–0.61)	0.817	0.513 (0.42–0.60)	0.788	0.52 (0.39–0.64)	0.786	0.52 (0.43–0.62)	0.638
GM-CSF	0.58 (0.50–0.67)	0.056	0.518 (0.43–0.60)	0.678	0.59 (49–0.70)	0.072	0.54 (0.46–0.63)	0.339
MPO	0.54 (0.46–0.62)	0.370	0.517 (0.44–0.60)	0.688	0.60 (0.51–0.70)	0.38	0.57 0.48–0.65)	0.121
S100A9	0.60 (0.52–0.68)	0.020*	0.557 (0.47–0.64)	0.181	0.64 (0.56–0.72)	<0.001***	0.62 (0.53–0.70)	0.006**
S100A12	0.63 (0.55–0.71)	0.002**	0.576 (0.49–0.66)	0.074	0.69 (0.60–0.77)	<0.001***	0.63 (0.54–0.71)	0.003**
ESR	0.59 (0.50–0.68)	0.048*	0.579 (0.49–0.67)	0.093	0.59 (0.49–0.70)	0.083	0.55 (0.46–0.64)	0.281
CRP	0.58 (0.49–0.67)	0.090	0.544 (0.45–0.64)	0.359	0.59 (0.49–0.70)	0.088	0.57 (0.48–0.66)	0.127
CHAQ	0.51 (0.42–0.61)	0.813	0.555 (0.47–0.64	0.240	0.48 (0.37–0.59)	0.678	0.52 (0.43–0.62)	0.642
Age at onset	0.51 (0.41–0.61)	0.834	0.518 (0.44–0.60)	0.667	0.45 (0.35–0.54)	0.278	0.57 (0.48–0.65)	0.135
Active joints	0.63 (0.53–0.72)	0.012*	0.578 (0.497–0.66)	0.069	0.55 (0.46–0.65)	0.276	0.55 (0.47–0.64)	0.229
Cumulative joints	0.64 (0.54–0.73)	0.006**	0.584 (0.501–0.67)	0.050	0.61 (0.52–0.71)	0.022*	0.55 (0.47–0.64)	0.204
JADAS71	0.58 (0.48–0.68)	0.121	0.578 (0.48–0.68)	0.141	0.54 (0.43–0.66)	0.441	0.54 (0.44–0.65)	0.442

*P<0.05; **p<0.01; ***p<0.001.
*Definitions of inactive/active disease and remission off medication as per Wallace et al.25 26
CCL-2, chemokine ligand 2; CHAQ, Childhood Health Assessment Questionnaire; CRP, C reactive protein; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; FU, follow-up; GM-CSF, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor; IL, interleukin; JADAS71, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score for 71 joints; MMP-3, matrix metalloproteinase 3; MPO, myeloperoxidase; S100A9, S100 calcium-binding protein A9; S100A12, S100 calcium-binding protein A12; sCD25, soluble CD25; TNFα, tumour necrosis factor alpha.