Objectives: The combination of clinical items suggestive of inflammatory back pain has proved useful for early identification of patients with axial SpA (axSpA) in primary care. However, whether HLA B27 contributes to that is unclear, and published recommendations have advised against it. In this study, we reanalysed data of that trial in relation to the HLA B27 results.
Methods: Consecutive patients <45 years old (n = 950) with back pain (BP) >2 months presenting to 143 orthopaedists were referred to 36 rheumatologists who made the diagnosis. The predictive value of HLA B27 (n = 298) alone and in combination, including modelling and a two-step strategy, was calculated.
Results: Among all patients (mean age 36 years, 52% female, median duration of BP 32 months), 107 had axSpA (36%). Using a simple model, HLA B27 alone performed better than all combinations of clinical items and adding it did not improve likelihood ratios (LRs). Using modelling, two-phase strategies were analysed. Additional items were only relevant in the HLA B27-negative group: improvement by movement, buttock pain and psoriasis. Combining this information revealed the presumably best strategy to predict axSpA in primary care: more than one of these items or HLA B27 need to be present (sensitivity 80.4%, specificity 75.4%, LR+ 3.27 and LR- 0.26).
Conclusion: This is the first study to show that patients with axSpA are more reliably identified in primary care by a strategy that includes HLA B27. Because of the two-step approach, the test needs to be performed in only about half of patients with chronic BP.
Keywords: HLA B27; ankylosing spondylitis; axial spondyloarthritis; inflammatory back pain; primary care.